Household Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan: A VEP Approach

Food insecurity is a serious challenge in Pakistan’s mountain regions. Households in this region face isolation, harsh climates, and poor access to markets and resources. This study examined household vulnerability to food insecurity in the Hunza District of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Data was collected from 340 households through stratified random sampling across Upper, Lower, and Central Hunza. A multidimensional Food Insecurity Index (FII) was built using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). This index measured both the frequency and severity of food access problems. The Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) method was then applied to estimate the probability of future food insecurity. Findings showed that most households (78%) were currently food secure. Yet, more than one-fifth (22%) remained vulnerable to future insecurity. Income diversification, literacy, and higher non-food spending reduced vulnerability. In contrast, rising food prices and pandemic-related shocks increased risks. Gender differences were small, but literacy stood out as a strong protective factor. Residual variance analysis showed that household traits alone could not explain differences in vulnerability, pointing to broader environmental and contextual influences. The study calls for targeted interventions. Priorities include promoting education, supporting diverse livelihoods, improving infrastructure and market access, and expanding social safety nets to reduce the impact of shocks. Special focus is needed on households that appear food secure but remain highly vulnerable, as they face significant risks in the future. These findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers, development agencies, and local communities working toward sustainable food security in Pakistan’s most remote and fragile regions.