An Iceberg Drift Prediction Study Offshore Newfoundland

Abstract Iceberg drift forecast is a challenging process. Large uncertainties in iceberg geometry and in the driving forces – current, wind and waves – make accurate forecasts difficult. The two forecast schemes, the ancillary current and the inertial current estimation-forecast scheme are presented. In both schemes, the moving horizon estimator is used, to estimate the needed parameters. Furthermore, a switching scheme is proposed, which switches between the two iceberg drift forecast schemes. A criterion is introduced that identifies when to switch between both schemes. The switching scheme is implemented and tested on an iceberg drift trajectory, measured during a research expedition offshore Newfoundland conducted by ArcticNet and Statoil. It is shown, that the use of two forecast schemes and a timely decision which scheme to use, improves the iceberg drift forecast compared to using only one scheme.