Structural imbalances in the global uranium market and their political implications

Purpose – This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global uranium market and assesses the ability of future supplies to meet growing demand through 2050. The study aims to identify potential imbalances between projected uranium supply and demand, taking into account market and geopolitical factors. Methodology – The study is based on a comprehensive approach that combines econometric analysis and uranium supply curve modeling. Econometric analysis uses a variety of methods to examine the correlation between prices and production volumes, ensuring the reliability of the results. Supply curve modeling shows how uranium availability will change with price changes, allowing for an assessment of market stability under different scenarios. Originality / value – The study analyzes the International Atomic Energy Agency’s forecasts and shows that primary uranium production will remain the main resource, despite the contribution from secondary sources. The study also highlights the importance of reviewing production and export policies in uranium-rich countries and ensuring security of supply. Findings – The main conclusion is that a significant imbalance between the projected uranium demand and supply, especially under medium and high demand scenarios, indicates that a potential shortage may arise by 2035. Kazakhstan is expected to take a leading position in the uranium export market by 2050. In addition, political and energy security issues may contribute to the growth of demand for nuclear energy, leading to the formation of new global partnerships and trade routes. The conclusions provide a deep understanding of market dynamics and contribute to the sustainable development of nuclear energy.