Impact of recent trade agreements on Japan's pork market

Since the turn of the century, Japan has relied on domestic pork production to supply around half of its pork consumption. In part, this production has been aided by import barriers that have helped shield domestic pork producers from foreign competition. Between 2018 and 2021, Japan ratified trade agreements with the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) countries that will virtually eliminate these import barriers by 2028. With essentially all of Japan’s pork imports coming from these trade agreement partners, Japan’s pork market could change considerably in the next 6 years, with imports taking a larger share of domestic consumption. For the United States, this change is estimated to lead to an additional $281 million worth of pork exports to Japan. This report uses a global economic model to estimate the impacts of these trade agreements. Results from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model suggest that when the trade agreements are fully implemented in 2028, there could be a 3.6- to 13.9- percent increase in pork imports into Japan in 2028 relative to 2018 levels. This increased exposure to foreign competition could also reduce Japan’s pork production between 4.2 and 11.8 percent