The Current Stage of the Demographic Transition in the Republic of Armenia

The purpose of the research carried within this book is to show the current stage of the demographic transition in the Republic of Armenia. We have investigated the variety of factors influencing the current natural growth rate, the trends in the dynamics, and the upcoming demographic challenges. We have introduced suggestions on formulating and adopting a national project of demographic development. To achieve this goal, we have set a task to present and analyze the data characterizing population natural growth: birth rate and mortality rates, as well as various factors influencing them. Attention has been given to the presentation of the marriage-divorce ratio as a precondition for the analysis of a factor directly affecting the birth rate. From the perspective of the analysis of mortality, particular attention has been paid to the demographic consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 Artsakh War. Guided by the methods of demographic macro-analysis, the investigation of the main characteristics of the current demographic situation in the RA in the conditions of the demographic consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 Artsakh War, allows not only the description of the current stage of the demographic transition, but also the prediction of future trends. At the same time, the historical-comparative analysis has presented the main data characterizing the current demographic situation, their impact on the tendencies of increasing or decreasing the population of the RA. In the end, we have concluded that the current demographic processes in the RA are characterized as the stage of demographic crisis and step by step are turning into the cycle of demographic “winter” (the natural decrease of the population), if the trends continue their current path. However, a minor natural growth of population has been stable so far.