Implementation of California’s Troubled Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate: A Review of Push-Pull Theory and Existing Circumstances

California’s 2035 Electric Vehicle Mandate essentially required that all new vehicle sales must be all-electric. Subsidy funding from California for consumers was generally limited and came from cap-and-trade revenue allocations. California’s process is what business management scholars characterize as a “Push” strategy. For California this manifested as: 1.) put even more taxes or cap-and-trade revenue dollars against the effort and, 2.) “push” even more with legislated mandates. The lingering overarching questions continuing to this day consider if this approach is working and, if not, should another approach be considered? The authors’ intent is to project in the simplest terms whether California’s current path will meet their stated goals. As a natural extension of this analysis, California’s “Push” strategy will likely not achieve the success, and should they consider another management strategy? Evidence was gathered, as much as practicable, using the state of California’s own data and other sources related to consumer buying habits for the various demographic consumer groups identified. Simple projections made in Excel over the mandates time-period, ending in 2035, looked to see what the economic implications would be for the various demographic groups and how that would logically affect their participation and therefore mandate goals’ success. The main findings strongly suggest that the lower economic demographic that makes up approximately 40% of the population have been and will continue to be resistant to participate in EV purchases. In addition, insufficient infrastructure (i.e. enough chargers and in the right locations) is an impediment to all demographic groups. The costs to meet the mandate both practically and economically are too high for California to get the participation rates needed to meet its’ mandate goals. The “Push” management strategy employed by California is not likely to result in mandate goals being met. The authors believe California should pivot to a “Pull” management strategy which addresses the political, cultural, scientific, economic, and industrial concerns of all demographic groups.