Research on the mechanism of supply chain default risk contagion

Abstract Absrtact: under the background of macroeconomic fluctuation, this paper discusses the influence of credit default risk contagion of one agent on the second default of another agent in supply chain. The network model of credit risk contagion is established by complex network theory, with the help of mathematical modeling and empirical data, the paper discusses the mechanism of credit risk contagion, which is influenced by the inter-firm relationship, individual risk resistance and the monitoring intensity of market regulator. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the potential heterogeneity of credit default in supply chain network, and reveals the mechanism of the effect of long-term debt on credit default risk in supply chain network. This study is of great theoretical value and practical significance for further analyzing the mechanism of credit risk contagion in supply chain, promoting the sustainable and healthy development of our economy and the formulation of national policies.