Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica

Ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coastline in West Antarctica are continuing to thin, albeit at a decelerating rate, whilst ice discharge across the grounding lines has been observed to increase by up to 100% since the early 1990s. Here, the ongoing and future evolution of ice-shelf mass balance components (basal melt, grounding line flux, calving flux) is assessed in a high-resolution coupled ice-ocean model that includes the Pine Island, Thwaites, Crosson and Dotson ice shelves. For a range of idealized ocean-forcing scenarios, the combined evolution of ice-shelf geometry and basal melt rates is simulated over a 200-year period. For all ice-shelf cavities, a reconfiguration of the 3D ocean circulation in response to changes in cavity geometry is found to cause significant and sustained changes in basal melt rate, ranging from a 75% decrease up to a 75% increase near the grounding lines, irrespective of the far-field ocean conditions. These poorly explored feedbacks between changes in ice-shelf geometry, ocean circulation and basal melting have a demonstrable impact on the net ice-shelf mass balance, including grounding line discharge, at multidecadal timescales. They should be considered in future projections of Antarctic mass loss, alongside changes in ice-shelf melt due to anthropogenic trends in the ocean temperature and salinity.