Regional and seasonal prediction of the Caribbean lobster (Panulirus argus) commercial catch in Cuba

The juvenile index at a nursery area on the Gulf of Batabanó has proved to be a reliable predictor of total catch of the common lobster (Panulirus argus) fishery; up to 1 year in advance. Over the last 15 years (1982–1996) juveniles have been monitored in concrete-block shelters that permit wider variation in juvenile recruitment and thus a regional and seasonal prediction of catches. Since 1988, puerulus settlement has been measured by means of artificial-seaweed collectors, but the short data series does not allow construction of a predictive model. The full-year model of catch prediction was based on the index of juvenile abundance and its relationships with lobster catches the following year. The seasonal models of catch prediction were based on the seasonal behaviour of the lobster fishery. The catch in the season of the massive migrations or ‘recalo’ (October–February) depends on the intensity of recruitment and the number of fishing days. The catch in ‘levante season’ (June–September) depends on the juvenile index and the catches during the previous ‘recalo’. The relationship between observed and predicted catch and management strategies was examined.