Transformation of the European Labor Market in the Context of Russian Military Aggression Against Ukraine

The purpose of this research work is to provide an in-depth analysis of the impact of the war in Ukraine on employment in the European Union, in particular in Poland, as well as to identify possible ways to support this market in times of crisis. The paper conducts a thorough analysis of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the labor market of the European Union countries, in particular in Poland; the main trends in the migration of Ukrainians to the EU countries and their participation in the labor market are studied; the main political and economic measures aimed at supporting the labor market during the wartime, in particular in Poland, are analyzed; the number of Ukrainian refugees and the share of those who will remain in the EU and other Western European countries in the medium term has been determined, which will depend on the duration and severity of the ongoing war. If hostilities continue or escalate, the number of fugitives will increase. A prolonged and more intense armed conflict is also likely to reduce the proportion of return Ukraine refugees. The distribution of refugees by age will be important for their impact on the supply of labor in host countries. Since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has imposed country-wide martial law, preventing men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country. As a result, the first waves of refugees included the elderly, children and women of working age. In the future, the attitude towards Ukrainian refugees in the labor market will be determined by the economic situation in different countries. Rising unemployment, inflation, and slowing economic progress can be perceived by a part of society as a consequence of the mass migration. However, despite rapid policy measures, barriers in and out of the labor market remain serious obstacles for refugees, making it difficult for them to integrate into the labor markets of their host countries, especially in the medium term. Uncertainty about the further development of the war makes it difficult to accurately assess its possible impact on the labor market. The percentage of Ukrainian refugees of working age will determine their impact on the workforce of the countries that host them.