Evaluation and Projection of Mean Surface Temperature Using CMIP6 Models Over East Africa

This study evaluates the historical mean surface temperature (hereafter T2m) and examines how T2m changes over East Africa (EA) in the 21st century using CMIP6 models. An evaluation was conducted based on mean state, trends, and statistical metrics (Bias, Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Square Difference, and Taylor skill score). For future projections over EA, five best performing CMIP6 models (based on their performance ranking in historical mean temperature simulations) under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were employed. The historical simulations reveal an overestimation of the mean annual T2m cycle over the study region with fewer models depicting underestimations. Further, CMIP6 models reproduce the spatial and temporal trends within the observed range proximity. Overall, the best performing models are as follows: FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, and IPSL-CM6A-LR. During the three-time slice under consideration, the Multi Model Ensemble (MME) project many changes during the late period (2080 – 2100) with expected mean changes at 2.4 °C for SSP2-4.5 and 4.4 °C for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The magnitude of change based on Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test reveal significant increasing tendencies with projections of 0.24°C decade-1 (0.65°C decade-1) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The findings from this study illustrate higher warming in the latest model outputs of CMIP6 relative to its predecessor, despite identical instantaneous radiative forcing.