Ecosystem vulnerability to extreme climate in coastal areas of China

Abstract Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems and the frequency and intensity of extreme global climate events have been increasing over the past century; therefore, assessing ecosystem vulnerability to extreme climate change is critical for sustainable and adaptive ecosystem management. As a climatically sensitive region, coastal China is currently experiencing significant environmental changes. To identify how extreme climate affects ecosystem vulnerability, we calculated and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in extreme climates, net primary productivity (NPP), and spatial characteristics of ecosystem vulnerability to extreme climate change, and discussed the response characteristics of different ecosystems to extreme climate events based on meteorological data and NPP (1986–2015). The results demonstrated that (1) coastal China has become increasingly warmer over the last thirty decades but the precipitation trend is different in the north and south: precipitation increased in the south and decreased in the north. (2) NPP is rising overall, with the forest ecosystem growing the fastest, particularly since 2010. (3) The ecosystem vulnerability of coastal areas in China is mainly classified as mild or non-vulnerable. However, there were apparent differences in the vulnerability of different ecosystems, with dry land and shrub ecosystems having the highest mean vulnerability. (4) The effects of extreme climates on the vulnerability of different ecosystems and ecosystems in different habitats vary. Overall, rising extreme temperatures can significantly increase the ecosystem vulnerability in the coastal areas of China. The paddy field ecosystem was more influenced by extreme temperatures than other ecosystems, with the southern paddy field ecosystem more influenced than the northern paddy field ecosystem. Our study advances the understanding of vegetation dynamics and their driving mechanisms and provides support for scientifically informed ecological management practices in coastal China.