How global change impacted the rise and fall of the Guge Kingdom

Abstract Climate changes and its influences on human society are of increasing concern in science communities. Based on the reconstructed climate data and CENTURY model, we simulated net primary productivity of grassland and the grain yield of highland barley during the pre-industrial millennium in Ali Prefecture, Tibet Autonomous Region. It showed that the variation of precipitation and temperature together affected the fluctuation of land productivity. Wavelet analysis results showed that the land productivity in Ali fluctuated within main periodic bands of 180 yr. We found that the rise and falls of the Guge Kingdom in Ali was synchronic with the fluctuation of land productivity, and the collapse of the Guge Kingdom was obviously related to the sudden change of climate in the 17th century, which turned dry and cold. By combining with historical studies, this study further proposes the mechanism of land productivity fluctuation under climate change on Guge Kingdom. Our findings are helpful to understand the relationship between climate change and social vulnerability, especially providing a typical case study of ancient plateau countries.