Differential responses of coexisting owls to annual small mammal population fluctuations in temperate mixed forest

Montane temperate forests in central and southern Europe host diverse small mammal assemblages, but the fluctuations in these assemblages in correlation with owl predators are still poorly explored. The key questions of our study were how coexisting owls responded to different prey fluctuations and whether any particular small mammal species governed predator–prey co‐dynamics. We conducted a long‐term study (2004–2020) in low‐elevation (300–1100 m above sea level) mixed Beech and Silver Fir forest in the northern Dinaric Alps (central Slovenia). Monitoring data on the main small mammal groups – mice Muridae, voles Cricetidae, dormice Gliridae and shrews Soricidae – and three owl species – the Ural OwlStrix uralensis, Tawny OwlStrix alucoand Boreal OwlAegolius funereus– were collected annually. To find relationships between prey and predator populations, we used two types of supervised machine learning approaches and addressed three predictive modelling tasks of multi‐target regression. The dominant species in the small mammal assemblage, the Yellow‐necked MouseApodemus flavicollis, had a key role in determining predator populations and their breeding performance. We noted higher sensitivity to small mammal fluctuations in boreal zone owl species (Boreal Owl and Ural Owl), which reach their southern distribution limit in the Dinaric Alps, whereas the temperate zone species (Tawny Owl) seemed to be less affected. In years of prey shortage, the Boreal Owl was found to presumably abandon its territories, the Ural Owl suppressed breeding and the Tawny Owl sustained breeding activity by shifting prey selection. Low‐elevation forests appeared to be suboptimal habitat for the competitive subordinate Boreal Owl, which may exploit occasional outbreaks of small mammal populations in these habitats even in the presence of larger competitors. Whether low‐elevation forests can play a role in maintaining threatened and cold‐adapted Boreal Owl populations in central and southern Europe in the face of recent ecosystem changes due to climate and environmental changes remains an open scientific question.