Accounting for Albedo in Carbon Market Protocols

Abstract Although natural climate solutions (NCS) are increasingly deployed within carbon markets and beyond, their climate benefits may be over-estimated due to a lack of accounting for changes in albedo. Here we analyze 172 Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation projects within the voluntary carbon market and find more than 10% occur in places where albedo entirely negates the climate mitigation benefit and a quarter occur in places where albedo halves the mitigation benefit. Yet, the majority of projects are concentrated where albedo changes are expected to be minimal, and 9% of projects occur where albedo would augment the mitigation benefit. New data make albedo accounting possible for the first time, and we outline an iterative approach for incorporating albedo considerations into carbon crediting protocols. Doing so will enable prioritization of projects with greater climate benefit and more accurately quantify credits that may be used to address unabated emissions.