Demystifying the Rise of Hamas

Most scholarly and popular writings portray Hamas as either extremist or anti- systemic and as a threat to democracy. Expected utility theory assumes that voters will reward centrist parties because voters are risk-averse, while prospect theory expects extremist parties to be supported by voters since they tend to become risk-takers when in loss. After contrasting Hamas’s ideological distance from other Palestinian political parties, I argue that the secret of Hamas’s electoral success in 2006 lies not in its extremism but in its ideological centrist domestic message, consistent with expected utility theory. Palestinian voters supported what they saw as a centrist Hamas although it was viewed as extremist in the West. More importantly, the participation of Hamas in the democratic process has moderated its domestic and foreign policies, while its exclusion has destabilizing and radicalizing effects.