Changes in Ginkgo Biloba’s Habitat Due to Climate Change in China

Ginkgo biloba, a "living fossil" with immense medicinal and conservation value, is a nationally first-class protected wild plant. However, many Ginkgo populations are under threat from habitat destruction, human exploitation, and over-harvesting, which has limited their numbers and range. Using an optimized MaxEnt model in R, this study analyzed Ginkgo distribution points and 22 ecological factors in China to explore the key environmental factors affecting its geographical distribution. The study also predicted the spatial distribution patterns and centroid changes of potential suitable areas under three different carbon emission pathways: current conditions, 2021-2040 (2030s), 2041-2060 (2050s), and 2061-2080 (2070s). The findings are as follows: (1) The optimal model parameter combination (RM = 3.2, FC = LPH) resulted in the lowest complexity and overfitting, while achieving very high prediction accuracy. (2) The key environmental factors influencing Ginkgo growth include precipitation in the driest month (20–175 mm), minimum temperature in the coldest month (-4 to 3°C), precipitation in the hottest quarter (450–2500 mm), and a temperature seasonal variation deviation greater than 580. (3) Under the three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the potential suitable habitat area for Ginkgo biloba in China is expected to increase, with the distribution range migrating to higher latitudes. This study is highly significant for the ecological protection of Ginkgo, aiding in the rational planning of potential suitable areas, enhancing the monitoring of key conservation areas, and developing effective protection strategies in a timely manner.