SOCIAL FORECASTING AS A TECHNOLOGY OF SOCIAL WORK

The article considers social forecasting as a technology of social work. The importance of social forecasting as a tool that allows analyzing current tendencies and assessing the possible consequences of social processes is determined. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the features of social forecasting as a social work technology. Research methods used: analysis of scientific sources on the social forecasting issues, the application of social forecasting methods, and the predictive competence of social work specialists. The features of this technology and its results (social forecasts) are highlighted, in particular: the relation of forecasting with management and planning processes, the relative objectivity of social forecasting, the high level of unpredictability, the dependence of the accuracy of forecasts and their time limits. Three levels of application of social forecasting technology in social work are identified and characterized: macro-, meso-, and micro levels. The content of the social forecasting stages as a social work technology in the community is covered: the analytical stage (assessment of community needs), the benchmarking stage, the stage of expert forecasting (search and normative), the stage of developing prognostic models. Thanks to forecasting, social work professionals have the opportunity to anticipate potential risks, plan measures to prevent crisis situations, and provide effective assistance to various categories of the population. The article focuses on the relevance of participatory forecasting application in social work in the context of war and post-war revival of communities and the country. The application of this technology contributes to improving management decisions and raising the social work quality, and contributes to the development of long-term programs for the prevention or minimization of social problems. The article emphasizes the importance of involving the public and specialists in the forecasting process, which contributes to more effective solutions to social problems and the development of innovations in social work within the community. The necessity for social work professionals to have predictive competence for effective activity and forecasting at the micro-level is substantiated.