Assessing wetlands ecological risk through an adaptive cycle framework

Abstract Contexts. Wetlands in areas of rapid economic development are at increased risk, which leading to significant losses to wetlands over time. Thus, it is urgent to declare and assess multi-ecological risk. Objectives. Wetland ecosystems are characteristics of adaptive. This study assesses wetlands ecological risk through adaptive cycle theory which are beneficial to highlight system dynamic. The study aims to reflect the response relationship between multiple risk sources and wetland ecosystems and predict future dynamic development phase. Methods. The study uses Kunshan wetlands of China as an example for constructing a wetland adaptive cycle framework firstly, determining indicators in 3-D dimensions of “Potential-Connectedness-Resilience,” and proposing a wetland ecological risk assessment system. Results. The results show that the spatial distribution of the ecological risk of "Potential" is highest in the Kunshan urban central region and lowest in the Kunshan north area, which is closely related to climate change. The ecological risk of whole area of “Connectedness” is high, and human activities have a greater impact on it. The resilience of wetlands needs to be continuously improved, and wetland ecosystem services need to be balanced. Regarding the adaptive cycle phases of ecological risk, Kunshan wetlands are in the exploitation r-phase and will transition to the conservation K-phase in the future. Conclusions. This study offers a logical reference for understanding the ecosystem dynamic development and analyzing ecological risks. Furthermore, it provides a direction for sustainable wetlands ecological protection strategies in areas with rapid economic development in global developing countries.