Russia and China in the Shifting Geopolitics of Central Asia and Implications for Pakistan

Abstract: The post-1991 geopolitical conftguration of the Central Asian region has once again undergone considerable change. The Russia-Ukraine war, US/NATO withdrawal, the consolidated nation and statehood of the Central Asian republics, China's economic rise in the neighborhood, the Taliban takeover of Kabul, and the regional connectivity plans of Central Asia's two giant neighbors, Russia and China, are just a few important hallmarks of the region's shifting geopolitics. Russia and China have developed a mutual understanding and cooperative arrangement in Central Asia that has gained additional space due to the military withdrawal of US/NATO from the region. The Sino-Russian condominium in Central Asia will strengthen as neither of the two intends to be a hegemon in the region. This Sino-Russian convergence has positive implications for Pakistan in terms of regional connectivity and security. China is an old ally of Pakistan, while Russia has recently developed trust and cooperative relations with it. Russia has long wanted to gain an opening via Central Asia to South Asia, the Indian Ocean, and beyond. Russia's war with Ukraine and Western sanctions have expedited this opening through the Greater Eurasian Partnership. China's Belt, in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), necessitates the linking of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with Afghanistan and Central Asia. In the changed regional circumstances the Central Asian republics have a renewed interest in including Afghanistan in the regional economic and connectivity framework. Pakistan can play a decisive role in securing the southern flank of Central Asia. Pakistan also offers the region an essential outlet to revive historical links and open up in a southerly direction.