Can trees at high elevations compensate for growth reductions at low elevations due to climate warming?

Radial tree stem growth of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) was monitored from 2012 to 2015 across sites in Austria with high-resolution dendrometers. Seasonal cumulative diameter increment was modeled using a hierarchical nonlinear mixed-effects model framework based on a logistic growth curve. In the dry and warm year 2015, the average annual diameter increment of 0.30 cm decreased by 50% on lower elevation sites and by 10% on higher elevation sites. In the cool and moist year 2014, Norway spruce achieved a higher annual diameter increment than European beech, whereas the opposite occurred in the dry and warm years 2013 and 2015. In the mixed beech–spruce stand, beech’s consumptive water-use strategy has obviously caused intensified stress for spruce in these drought periods. On higher elevation sites, Norway spruce reacted more sensitively to climate fluctuation compared with stone pine, but overall reactions were only weak. Productivity varied strongly depending on the social status of the tree, with dominant and intermediate trees suffering more from drought. As warming and drought lowers increment rates on lower elevation sites and as trees on higher elevation sites react less flexibly, productivity losses are expected for Austrian forests due to climate warming.