The Dynamic Analysis and Comparison of Emergy Ecological Footprint for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: A Case Study of Qinghai Province and Tibet

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is experiencing rapid urbanization and ecological degradation, which have led to unsustainable development. It is urgent to conduct a scientifically rigorous study to evaluate its sustainability. Emergy ecological footprint (EEF) is a new modification of ecological footprint based on ecological thermodynamics. This study applied a modified EEF model and three indicators to analyze the sustainability using data collected from Tibet and Qinghai Province during 1995 to 2014. The grey model (GM) was applied to simulate and predict the ecological status of Qinghai and Tibet. Results showed that: (1) the emergy ecological footprint and ecological deficit of Qinghai province increased in general from 1995 to 2014, while Tibet was still sustainable during this period despite the fact that its ecological surplus decreased; (2) the three sustainability indicators indicate that Qinghai and Tibet are moving away from sustainability; (3) the ecological deficit of Qinghai will keep increasing and the ecological surplus of Tibet will keep decreasing from 2015 to 2024. Finally, several suggestions were proposed to protect the local environment and restore ecological functions in these regions.