Hazard assessment of debris flow disaster induced by Tianchi outburst in Changbai Mountain

Abstract The frequent occurrence of debris flow disasters in the Chibei District of the Changbaishan Mountain Reserve has seriously affected the lives and properties of residents.This paper, the MIKE21 model was used to simulate the distribution area and maximum water depth after the water body collapse in Changbaishan Tianchi. According to the specific conditions of the study area, eight evaluation indicators were selected: maximum water depth, average annual rainfall, slope, aspect, curvature, vegetation cover, lithology, and distance to water system. The study adopts game theory to optimize the combination of two empowerment methods of network hierarchy analysis (ANP) and CRITIC. It comprehensively evaluates the disaster hazard of debris flow induced by the Changbaishan Tianchi outburst based on a geographic information system. The results showed that 27.5% and 11.8% of the study areas were high and very high-risk, respec-tively. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to verify the accuracy of the mudslide hazard evaluation model. The accu-racy of the results reached 92%, indicating that the results of the hazard zoning are in line with re-ality. The assessment results can provide primary research for assessing debris flow disaster risk and early warning in the Changbaishan mountain area.