Successful Application of Machine Learning to Improve Dynamic Modeling and History Matching for Complex Gas-Condensate Reservoirs in Hai Thach Field, Nam Con Son Basin, Offshore Vietnam

Abstract This study aims to apply machine learning (ML) to make history matching (HM) process easier, faster, more accurate, and more reliable by determining whether Local Grid Refinement (LGR) with transmissibility multiplier is needed to history match gas-condensate wells producing from geologically complex reservoirs and determining how LGR should be set up to successfully history match those production wells. The main challenges for HM gas-condensate production from Hai Thach wells are large effect of condensate banking (condensate blockage), flow baffles by the sub-seismic fault network, complex reservoir distribution and connectivity, highly uncertain HIIP, and lack of PVT information for most reservoirs. In this study, ML was applied to analyze production data using synthetic samples generated by a very large number of compositional sector models so that the need for LGR could be identified before the HM process and the required LGR setup could also be determined. The proposed method helped provide better models in a much shorter time, and improved the efficiency and reliability of the dynamic modeling process. 500+ synthetic samples were generated using compositional sector models and divided into training and test sets. Supervised classification algorithms including logistic regression, Gaussian, Bernoulli, and multinomial Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, and Decision Tree as well as ANN were applied to the data sets to determine the need for using LGR in HM. The best algorithm was found to be the Decision Tree classifier, with 100% and 99% accuracy on the training and the test sets, respectively. The size of the LGR area could also be determined reasonably well at 89% and 87% accuracy on the training and the test sets, respectively. The range of the transmissibility multiplier could also be determined reasonably well at 97% and 91% accuracy on the training and the test sets, respectively. Moreover, the ML model was validated using actual production and HM data. A new method of applying ML in dynamic modeling and HM of challenging gas-condensate wells in geologically complex reservoirs has been successfully applied to the high-pressure high-temperature Hai Thach field offshore Vietnam. The proposed method helped reduce many trial and error simulation runs and provide better and more reliable dynamic models.