METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES OF FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IN ORGANIZED COMMODITY MARKETS

The article highlights the methodological principles of fundamental analysis. The purpose of this research is to consider the theoretical principles of fundamental analysis and the features of its application for assessing the current state and forecasting the commodity derivatives markets conditions. It has been determined that the importance of applying fundamental analysis lies in: studying fundamental factors that affect the value of commodity assets and commodity derivatives prices; identifying relationships between changes in some fundamental factors and their impact on changes in others; identifying the true value of exchange-traded assets in order to form price risk management strategies or speculative transactions. Two methods of conducting fundamental analysis at three levels are presented, which include: macro level, industry level and micro level. The main information resources for conducting fundamental analysis on organized commodity markets are highlighted. It is noted that the effectiveness of derivatives trading strategies depends on the systematic implementation of fundamental analysis and adherence to the following principles: regularity; systematicity; specificity; objectivity; scientific validity or innovation. The development of applied methods of economic analysis and the use of artificial intelligence now provide fundamental analysis at a qualitatively new level. A comparison of fundamental analysis with technical analysis is presented, which is also used to analyze derivatives quotes and is based on the assessment of historical data and the identification of patterns, while fundamental analysis is based on the assessment of current situation data, news, and other analytics. At the same time, both analyses are aimed at predicting the derivatives market situation in order to make management decisions by market participants. It is noted that for conducting fundamental analysis on organized commodity markets, it is important to adhere to certain principles and apply the balance sheet method of assessing the supply and demand indicators of the commodity assets under research.