Time to Blindness and its associated risk factors of glaucoma patients Using Bayesian Survival Model: A data from Felege Hiwot Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia

Abstract Background: Glaucoma is a neurodegenerative condition that affects the eye and is associated with increased intraocular pressure. Intraocular pressure is carefully regulated and disturbance is often involved in the development of pathologies such as glaucoma, uveitis, and retinal detachment. The study identified factors that have an association with longitudinal IOP and time in glaucoma patients attending an ophthalmology clinic at the Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialised Hospital, Ethiopia using Bayesian survival model analysis. Methods: A time-to-event study with data obtained from Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, glaucoma patients enrolled in an ophthalmology clinic, the measurement of IOP change approximately every six months and the time of an event occurring were taken. Study subjects were enrolled between the 1 January 2016 and 1st January 2020 period. A total of 328 patients were selected for this study. The Bayesian Weibull proportional hazard model for the survival data analysis was used. Results: 328 patients were included in the analysis, with 2 being the minimum and 9 being the maximum for repeated measurements of IOP change, including the baseline. The hazard function of the Bayesian Weibull PH model is significantly determined by covariates such as age, blood pressure, diabetes, Pilocarpin, Timolol with Pilocarpin, Timolol with Diamox, Timolol with Diamox with Pilocarpin, medium treatment duration, long treatment duration, and advanced stage of glaucoma in patients. Conclusion: Based on the Bayesian Weibull PH model, the predictors of age CI (0.2691, 0.4919), blood pressure (0.9148, 0.8017), diabetic disease (0.1015, 0.1943), long treatment duration (0.2326, 0.4437), advanced stages of glaucoma (0.1099, 1.328), and cup-disk ratio>0.7 (-0.159, -0.015) were significantly affect the average intraocular pressure (IOP). Also, the predictor type of medication was statistically significant and negatively associated with the responses to IOP. Recommendation: Health professionals give more attention to the type of medication especially (Timolol with Pilocarpin, Timolol with Diamox, and Timolol with Diamox with Pilocarpin), to minimize intraocular pressure when the patients are back again in the hospital.