The Last Heir? Kim Ju-Ae and North Korea's Succession

Can Kim Jong-un’s daughter become the next ruler of North Korea? Despite the ongoing debate about Kim Ju-ae’s succession, experts say gender is not an issue when it comes to North Korea’s leadership succession. They analyze that ultimately, it depends solely on the supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s decision. North Korea’s constitution and the “10 Principles for the Establishment of the Party’s Unitary Leadership System,” which justify the three-generation Kim family succession by emphasizing “the bloodline of Paektu Mountain,” do not explicitly prohibit a female leader. Even if a woman takes power in a country like North Korea, experts predict little will change. Female leaders would likely adopt similar traits. Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s sister, has publicly demonstrated this: her statements are often harsher than her brother’s. While Kim Ju-ae may face limits modeling herself after previous leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, if she becomes leader, she is expected to rule as a dictator modeled on Kim Jong-un. The main difference would be the elevated status of women in North Korea. Reports indicate North Korea’s younger generation increasingly opposes the fourth-generation succession. This cohort is skeptical of Kim Jong-un’s leadership and the regime, prompting sensitive responses from North Korean authorities. If the fourth-generation leadership does not present a more modern, sophisticated image, regime survival may face serious challenges. In response, the Kim regime may be considering the “first female leader” card. If Kim Ju-ae rises as successor, she would become the world’s first female communist leader and add a new “refined” image to the North Korean regime. This can be seen as an attempt to modernize and soften the traditional communist leadership image. However, it is unclear how effective this would be among North Korea’s youth, especially the so-called “jangmadang generation.” This group, born after the collapse of the socialist rationing system in the 1990s, grew up with market-driven capitalist activities. They feel they have received little from the government and show relatively weak loyalty. Having not experienced the socialist distribution system, ideological propaganda and loyalty demands have little impact on them.