Urban Land Expansion Simulation Considering the Increasing versus Decreasing Balance Policy: A Case Study in Fenghua, China

Under the political dominance of urbanization, the policy of increasing versus decreasing balance (IVDB) between urban and rural construction land has had a profound influence on urban land expansion in China. The purpose of this study is to reveal the impact of the IVDB policy on the process of urban land expansion. Considering the transition process among different land use types under the IVDB policy, this study proposes two situations of urban land expansion. A future land use simulation (FLUS) model is applied to simulate the expansion process over three steps. A case study of Fenghua District in Ningbo City, China, shows the following: (1) In the first situation of village land directly transformed into urban land, the transformation is concentrated in the northern and western parts of Fenghua District. The expansion trends are particularly pronounced along existing urban land and main traffic lines. (2) In the second situation of village land reclamation for agricultural land and urban land occupation for agricultural land, the spatial differences in village land conversion to arable land or other agricultural land are relatively small, and the degree of concentration of arable land is significantly increased after reclamation. Urban land expansion mainly occurs close to Ningbo City. With the help of transfer quotas “produced” by other areas, expansion land can be balanced within Fenghua District. This research helps to shed light on the urban land use growth process and provides beneficial insights for stock spatial planning in China.