Analysis of Transformer Service Life Prediction at Traction Substation Cipete Raya MRT Jakarta Based on Temperature and Load Using Linear Regression Method.

PT Mass Rapid Transit Jakarta operates a mass transportation system from Lebak Bulus Station to Bundaran HI. One of the traction substations is located in Cipete Raya, with a voltage rating of 20kV/1.2kV. A critical piece of equipment in this substation is the traction transformer, with a capacity of 4850 kVA/2x2500 kVA. The purpose of this study is to predict the service life of the Cipete Raya traction transformer based on temperature and load using the linear regression method. This study employs direct observation, analyzing load data from traction transformers 1 and 2 at Cipete Raya from January 2022 to June 2024, along with transformer temperature measurements. Secondary data include the technical specifications of the Cipete Raya traction transformer. The linear regression analysis for transformer 1 yields the equation y = 687.42 + 11.97x, indicating a 5.75% annual increase over the next 5 years, with a very strong correlation coefficient of R = 0.919. For transformer 2, the equation is y = 815.4543 + 6.488x, showing a 3% annual increase, with a strong correlation coefficient of R = 0.814. Based on the transformer aging calculations for June 2024, Transformer 1 has a per unit aging value (V) of 0.0014 and an estimated service life (n) of 407.689 years, while Transformer 2 has a V of 0.0012 and an estimated service life of 496.77 years. The aging model evaluation using MAPE shows that the prediction accuracy for transformers 1 and 2 is 6% and 3%, respectively, indicating excellent modeling performance.