Introduction

A roadmap of the book is developed to expedite a fundamental upgrade to the traditional Monte Carlo methodology. Traditionally risks are seen as standalone noninteracting events. As noninteracting risks are attributes of simple project systems, the traditional Monte Carlo methodology can be adequate in simple projects only. As the vast majority of the project is complex, a more sophisticated methodology that takes interacting risks into account is required. Two types of interactions—intra-risk (amplification of standalone risks due to ‘chronic’ project system issues) and inter-risk (knock-on and compounding interactions among risks)—are taken into account. These stem from various imbalances inside and between two fundamental project subsystems—project structure and project delivery subsystems. The methodology developed in this book is labelled ‘non-linear Monte Carlo methodology’. In parallel, system dynamic modelling of project risks exposure is undertaken. Besides the technical aspects, political aspects of risk modelling and project decision-making are reviewed including various realizations of bias. The notorious Hiding Hand concept is challenged by a newly introduced Revealing Hand approach based on the non-linear Monte Carlo methodology. This book has four target auditoria—all project practitioners who are not involved in Monte Carlo modelling, Monte Carlo modellers, students and instructors of various project management programmes, and specialists involved in project claims and dispute resolutions. The content of this book is organized in a way that serves specific needs of the target auditoria members.