From Prediction to Presumption? The Results of a Pilot Project in Greater Manchester on the Value of a SIR Recommendation Guidelines Matrix

Abstract: The theme of consistency is one which is increasingly appearing at a number of points in the criminal justice system. The probation service has been in difficulty achieving consistency of practice as it has had to shadow the inconsistencies within and between courts and this effect has been compounded by using instruments which predict local outcomes in court and ties local probation practice to them. This piece of work shows that greater consistency can be achieved by using a simple recommendation matrix (SIR recommendation guidelines) based on probation officers' recommendation practice which in turn seems to influence court's disposal favourably. This could pave the way for the probation service to adopt an approach in which it presumes that staff will follow agreed practice rather than trying to predict and follow the requirements of different courts. At the same time, staff would be allowed to depart from the SIR recommendation guidelines after consultation in order to maintain their capacity to respond to unusual individual circumstances. The approach has particular relevance to the Criminal Justice Act which seeks to relate disposals to offence seriousness and offender suitability. In order to establish the new sentencing framework, both courts and the probation service will have to rely initially on their existing practice to some extent. The mechanism outlined in this paper thus provides a starting point for pre‐sentence report (PSRs) advice to courts as a guide as to sentence. The guidelines will need to be amended through periodic review so that it is in line with recent practice and government legislation.