A magyar állampénzügyi rendszer rezilienciája a COVID–19 járvány kapcsán

Összefoglaló. A COVID–19 járvány a magyar gazdaság teljesítményeit és pénzügyi egyensúlyát is gyengítette, ám a korábbról stabil államháztartási alapok következtében a negatív hatások csak átmenetinek vélelmezhetők. Magyarország 2010–2019 között egy sikeres állampénzügyi reformot hajtott végre, amely jó alapot ad a válság elleni védekezéshez. Ugyanakkor a járványválság még erősebben ráirányítja a figyelmet a magyar nemzetgazdaság versenyképességének erősebb javítására, az infláció fékezésére, a költségvetési egyensúly megfelelő keretek között tartására, és a kis- és középvállalati szektor mérethatékonyságának növelésére. A tanulmány bemutatja a válság alatti fiskális és jegybanki intézkedések vázát, és egyúttal utal a válság utáni időszak kihívásaira, amelyek a nemzetközi térből, s különösen a jegybanki politika megváltozásából fakadnak. Summary. The COVID-19 epidemic hit the position of the otherwise strong Hungarian economy. We could see an economic downturn and financial imbalance developed in the last one and half years. As in the recovery (post-crisis) period of the 2010 decade, the crisis is being addressed with the active involvement of the state and the central bank. However, in the course of managing the crisis, it arises that on the new growth trajectory to be built after the recovery period, the competitiveness aspects, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprise category, which plays a major role in Hungary, should be more efficient than in the previous decade. It is necessary to improve the size efficiency, liquidity and capital efficiency of the SME sector by means of fiscal regulation, and the allocation of state resources should be more strongly linked to the requirements of export capacity and innovative business conduct. The decade after the 2007–2008 crisis – the previous recovery period – was characterized by the weak enforcement of fiscal policies in regulating and improving competitiveness, especially in Hungary, where change is essential. After 2013, Hungarian monetary policy also caught up with the international practice of quantitative easing, achieving significant results in improving both the financial balance and economic growth. However, the previous quantitative easing of the central bank, as well as the increase of budget expenditures on epidemiological expenditures, investments, normative budget annual subsidies from the European Union and subsidies from the European Reconstruction Fund, and even investment loans from our Eastern economic partners, generates an overheated economy, inflationary pressures, and external and balance of payments deficits. Added to this is the wage dynamics of the population, and the permanent and even increasing disbursement of family benefits during the crisis. All in all, in the 2020s we will face a new financial-debt crisis, unemployment and labor shortage problems, the competitiveness problems of the small business sector, culminating in the reorganization of the world economy, new competitiveness aspects, it will be a rather complex task. Thus, the turn of competitiveness that has essentially failed in the context of an abundance of resources and consolidated macroeconomic conditions (2010-2019) must be implemented “uphill”, it is only the time, will and opportunity to take its first steps. But the main lesson of the crises caused by the epidemics (also) is that the remaining economic entities have become stronger. And perhaps there is a chance to avoid falling into the trap of medium development through a new central bank policy that moderates inflation and truly enforces modernization considerations, as well as improving financial positions and improving economic positions (competitiveness).