Visual Analytics of China’s Annual CO2 Emissions: Insights, Limitations, and Future Directions

Growing global concern over greenhouse gas emissions has led to a demand for understanding and addressing carbon emissions, with China being one of the main contributors to global carbon emissions, committed to reach the carbon peak by 2030. As a result, much previous research has delved into the drivers of carbon emissions in China; however, few studies have included new energy factors in the extended STIRPAT model when analysing the data, employed more advanced visualisation techniques such as force-directed diagrams, and explored factors outside of the industrial and energy sectors in determining China’s ability to reach their environmental goals. In this study, we use the extended STIRPAT model to analyse a more diverse range of drivers for carbon emissions in China and discuss methods to reach peak carbon emissions through the implementation of environmental policies. Using data from China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and Vision 2035 to set up two simulation scenarios, we predict China’s carbon emissions, introducing ridge regression to ensure validity, and employing big data and visualisation techniques to aid in interpreting results. Our findings suggest that China needs to implement more stringent environmental policies to meet its commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030, revealing that factors such as per capita arable land area, per capita GDP, the proportion of people living in extreme poverty, the level of tourism development, the use of fossil fuels, and new energy technologies have a significant impact on China’s carbon emissions. As such, we can recommend more stringent policies relating to the agricultural, energy, and tourism sectors to help China achieve their goal of carbon peak by 2030.