Quantifying the independent contributions of climate and land use change to ecosystem services

Abstract Ecosystem Services (ESs) are the embodiment of human welfare and play an important part in supporting the sustainable development of human society and regions. Climate change (CLC) and land use change (LUCC) are the most important factors influencing ESs. However, few studies have been devoted to differentiate their independent contributions on ESs. Based on the meteorological, soil, land use, and remote sensing data of Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model and Carnegie-Ames Stanford Approach(CASA) model was applied to construct a scenario simulation framework with three hypotheses(only CLC effect, only LUCC effect and the combined effect of CLC and LULC) to differentiate the independent contributions betwwen CLC and LUCC to net primary productivity(NPP), water yield (WY) and soil retention (SR) change and their dynamic change. The results showed that under the joint effect of CLC and LULC, NPP, WY and SR in Liaoning Province showed a rising trend from 2000 to 2020, increasing by 124.62gC/m², 30.64mm/a and 0.63t/km², respectively. In only CLC effect scenario, WY and SR changed by 6.24% and 2%, respectively, which was more significant than in only LUCC effect scenario. By contrast, NPP changed by 25.71% in only LUCC effect scenario, which was more significant than in only CLC effect scenario. Overall, CLC was the dominant factor of WY and SR change in Liaoning Province, with a independent contributions rate of 81.79%-84.02% and 73.57%-85.44%, respectively, whereas LUCC was the dominant factor of NPP change, with a independent contributions rate of 86.12%-92.50%. The decreased precipitation and the increased temperature were two primary reasons of the fluctuation in the independent contributions rate of CLC to WY and SR change, while the large area damage of forest land and rapid urbanization were two primary reasons of the fluctuation in the independent contributions rate of LUCC to NPP change. The study revealed the affect of different climatic conditions to ESs and the strong conflict between urbanization and ecosystem service provision and provided a theoretical foundation for the increase of ESs and regional sustainable development in Liaoning Province.