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Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?
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AbstractThis paper deals with a critical assessment of the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an easy-to-use analytical instrument: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve, the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, and the (mis-)measurement of important variables, cointegration issues and a time variability of the NAIRU. A new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany using direct measures of inflationary expectations. However, by any method, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.
Title: Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?
Description:
AbstractThis paper deals with a critical assessment of the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (NAIRU) for Germany.
There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an easy-to-use analytical instrument: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve, the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, and the (mis-)measurement of important variables, cointegration issues and a time variability of the NAIRU.
A new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany using direct measures of inflationary expectations.
However, by any method, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.
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