Predictability of Magnetopause Location

Understanding the dynamics and predictability of magnetopause location is crucial for space weather forecasting and the safeguarding of critical technological infrastructure. The first part of the talk surveys previous effort in development of magnetopause models that gradually involve more and more driving parameters, starting from solar wind dynamic pressure, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and orientation, tilt angle of the Earth dipole and/or IMF cone angle. We show that, in spite of different forms of the magnetopause surface and different functions used for quantification of effects of driving parameters, their ability of prediction of magnetopause location is nearly identical in a statistical sense. Following this survey, we discuss main contributors to the uncertainty of this prediction like variations of upstream parameters or effects of other parameters not included in the present models and suggest a possible way for development of a new, more precise, model. The last part of the talk discusses effects of foreshock and magnetosheath transients that are unpredictable but that can result in extreme magnetopause displacements.