Popular Reactions to Coordination Problems under External Threats

Exogenous threats pose a formidable coordination challenge to federations, as they compel governments at all levels to cooperate to prevent a collective risk. As the vertical fragmentation of powers complicates a coordinated response, we here argue that the central government becomes the focal point of the solution. In search of a more effective response against the threat, citizens coordinate their preferences around the centralization of authority boundaries in the federation. We test this argument using an on-line survey experiment in Spain, a country where the threat caused by COVID-19 has operated on top of non-negligible internal threats. The empirical analysis shows that exposure to vertical coordination failures prompt citizens to support a centralized redrawing of authority boundaries, though this effect is importantly conditioned by respondents’ ideology and territorial preferences. Our findings suggest that shocks may represent turning points for the stability of federations, as citizens demands for a redrawing of authority might be followed by beneficial or opportunistic adjustments of authority.