How Urban Polycentricity Influences Supply Chain Risk: Evidence from China

Abstract As urban spatial patterns continue to evolve, polycentric urban structures at the macro level have become a critical factor influencing firm development, increasingly impacting the stability and security of corporate supply chains. Based on a sample of 5,286 publicly listed firms in China from 2006 to 2022, this study examines the effect of urban polycentricity on firms’ supply chain risk and its underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that excessively dispersed polycentric layouts exacerbate supply chain risks for firms. Industrial structure upgrading at the macro level effectively mitigates these risks, while firm-level innovation investment and financing constraints further amplify the risk-enhancing effects of polycentricity. Furthermore, the impact of urban polycentric structures on supply chain risk exhibits significant heterogeneity both across regions and among different types of firms. This research offers a novel perspective and theoretical foundation for firms’ supply chain management strategies, urban spatial planning, and regional economic stability.