The Prediction of Maternal Serum Alpha Fetoprotein Level and Fetal Nuchal Translucency, Forcases Involving Preterm Prelabor Rupture of Membranes

Abstract Objective: To investigate whether the values of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and fetal nuchal translucency (NT) during the first and second trimesters can predict preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM). Methods: This retrospective case-control study analyzed the first and second trimester screening indicators and maternal outcomes of gravidas who were divided into the Non-PPROM group (594) and the PPROM group (591). Binary logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the OR and 95% CI. ROC and AUC were used for screening performance of AFP and NT. Results: The values of NT and AFP in the PPROM group were higher than the control group and the difference was statistically significant (all P<0.05). There was no significant difference with respect to PAPP-A, free-β hCG, and the calculated risk of trisomy 18 (all P>0.05). Binary logistic regression showed that NT and AFP MoM were risk factors for PPROM, with ORs of 1.719 and 3.549, respectively. The AUC according to the ROC for NT, AFP MoM and maternal weight in the first trimester +NT+AFP were 0.552, 0.618 and 0.630. Conclusions: NT and AFP during the first and second trimesters were identified as risk factors for PPROM and valuable markers to predict PPROM in late pregnancy. Multi-index joint prediction was more effective.