Inverting marine terrace morphology to constrain paleo sea-level

<p>Quantifying paleo sea-level changes is an important challenge given its intricate relation with paleo-climate, -ice-sheets and geodynamics, but pre-Holocene uncertainties currently span several tens of meters. The world’s coastlines provide an enormous geomorphologic dataset, and recent modelling studies have showed their potential in constraining paleo sea-level through forward landscape evolution modeling. We take a next step, by applying a Bayesian approach to invert the geometry of marine terrace sequences to paleo sea-level. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method, we test our model on synthetic profiles and two observed marine terrace sequences. The synthetic profiles – with known input parameters – show that there are optimal values for uplift rate, erosion rate, initial slope and wave base depth to obtain a well-constrained inversion. Both the inversion of synthetic profiles and a terrace profile from Santa Cruz (Ca, US) show how sea-level peaks are easier to constrain than sea-level troughs, but that also solutions for peaks tend to be non-unique. Synthetic profiles and profiles from the Corinth Rift (Greece) both show how inverting multiple profiles from a sequence can lead to a narrower range of possible paleo sea-level, especially for sea-level troughs. This last result emphasizes the potential of inverting coastal morphology: joint inversion of globally distributed marine terrace profiles may eventually reveal not only local relative sea-level histories, but catalyse a better understanding of both global paleo sea-level and glacio-isostatic adjustments.</p>