The Lag Effect of Long-Term Exposure to PM2.5 on Esophageal Cancer in Urban-Rural Areas Across China

Abstract Long-term exposure to PM 2.5 pollution is a significant health concern and increases risks for cancers in China. However, the studies regarding the effect of PM 2.5 and esophageal cancer incidence (ECI) among urban-rural areas are limited. In this study, we examined the sex- and area-specific association between long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and ECI, as well as explored the corresponding lag effects on ECI using a geographical weighted Poisson regression. We found that each 10 ug/m 3 PM 2.5 caused ECI risk increases of 1.22% (95% CI: 1.09%, 1.36%) and 1.90% (95% CI: 1.66%, 2.14%) for males and females after covariates controlled, respectively, during the study period. Moreover, the higher 0.17% and 0.64% incidence risks for males and females in rural areas than urban areas, as well as a larger lag period in rural areas, respectively. In addition, higher risks for both sexes appeared in north, northwestern, and east China. The findings indicated that long-term exposure to PM 2.5 was significantly associated with increased risks for ECI, which reinforce a comprehensive understanding for ECI related to PM 2.5.