The Environmental and Grid Impact of Boda Boda Electrification in Nairobi, Kenya

Boda boda motorbike taxis are a primary mode of transport in Nairobi, Kenya, and a major source of urban air pollution. This study investigates the environmental and electrical grid impacts of electrifying Nairobi’s boda boda fleet. Using real-world tracking data from 118 motorbikes, we simulated the effects of a full-scale transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric motorbikes. We analysed various scenarios, including different battery charging strategies (swapping and home charging), motor efficiencies, battery capacities, charging rates, and the potential for solar power offsetting. The results indicate that electrification could reduce daily CO2 emissions by approximately 85% and eliminate tailpipe particulate matter emissions. However, transitioning the entire country’s fleet would increase the national daily energy demand by up to 6.85 GWh and could introduce peak grid loads as high as 2.40 GW, depending on the charging approach and vehicle efficiency. Battery swapping was found to distribute the grid load more evenly and better complement solar power integration compared to home charging, which concentrates demand in the evening. This research provides a scalable, data-driven framework for policymakers to assess the impacts of transport electrification in similar urban contexts, highlighting the critical trade-offs between environmental benefits and grid infrastructure requirements.