Long‐term growth dynamics of natural forests in Hokkaido, northern Japan

Abstract. The long‐term growth dynamics of natural forest stands on the island of Hokkaido were described on the basis of an analysis of data from 38 permanent plots spanning 15–22 yr. Stand structure was characterized by basal area, stem density and tree size variability. To detect trends in stand structure, regression models for recruitment rate (per ha per yr), mortality rate and the rate of change in stem density and tree size variability were developed by a stepwise method using initial basal area, stem density, tree size variability, species composition summarized by LNMDS ordination, altitude, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, type of understorey vegetation, topography and slope aspect as candidates for predictor variables. The same analyses were conducted for basal area increment (net growth) and its components: survivor growth = basal area gain by growth of surviving individuals and mortality = basal area loss by death of individuals.Stem density remained generally unchanged; recruitment was relatively low even in very sparse stands. Stand basal area generally increased as survivor growth was approximately double the mortality.Recruitment rate was strongly affected by the presence of dwarf bamboo (Sasa spp.) vegetation on the forest floor which inhibited tree regeneration. Mortality rate was density‐dependent; dense stands had higher mortality than sparse stands. Density change rate (recruitment rate ‐ mortality rate) was, therefore, determined by both the type of understorey vegetation and stem density. Survivor growth was high in stands with high stem density and basal area. Mortality was dependent on basal area and altitude. Net basal area increment (net growth) was dependent only on stem density with other factors that influenced survivor growth and mortality omitted. Tree size variability decreased in stands with high tree size variability whereas it increased in stands with low size variability. Based on the obtained models for density change rate and net basal area increment, trajectories of stands were illustrated on a log‐log diagram of stem density and basal area. The predicted differences in trajectories as affected by the understorey vegetation type indicated the importance of dwarf bamboo vegetation for forest dynamics on Hokkaido.