Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Aphis sp. in Ningxia under future climate scenarios based on ensemble model

Abstract Aphis sp. is a major pest of Goji berry in Ningxia, significantly affecting its yield and quality. To explore the potential distribution changes of Aphis sp. under climate change, this study used data from 104 valid occurrence points collected from 2019 to 2024 in the main Goji-producing areas of Ningxia, combined with 19 climatic variables. The Biomod2 ensemble modeling framework, incorporating 10 individual models, was employed to predict the current and future (2030s–2090s) suitable habitats for Aphis sp. under four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585).The results indicate that under current climatic conditions, highly suitable habitats for Aphis sp. are primarily concentrated in the central and northern regions of Ningxia, with a total suitable area of 3,902.67 km², accounting for 5.88% of the region’s total land area. Environmental factor analysis revealed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and annual mean temperature (Bio1) are the key variables influencing the distribution of Aphis sp., with a combined contribution rate of 41.2%. The ensemble models (EMca and EMwmean) demonstrated significantly higher predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.89) compared to individual models. In particular, the EMca model more effectively captured fluctuations in the extent of suitable habitats. Under four climate scenarios, the suitable habitat area for Aphis sp. is projected to expand significantly, with the greatest increase observed under the SSP370 scenario, reaching 40,723 km² by the 2090s. Moreover, the suitable range is expected to shift from the central-northern region toward the northwest and southwest. This study provides a theoretical foundation for the targeted management of Aphis sp. in Ningxia and highlights the need to closely monitor the impact of climate warming on the expansion of their suitable habitat.