A Potential Tsunami impact assessment of submarine landslide at Baiyun Depression in Northern South China Sea

Abstract Background With mature hydrocarbon industry, Northern South China Sea (NSCS) is a hot spot for future economic development. However, the local government and researchers lack of estimations about damages brought by a submarine landslide-generated tsunami. According to oceanographic surveys, eleven landslides in different scale have been discovered in Baiyun Depression of NSCS. Hence, the need to study potential tsunamis generated by submarine landslides in NSCS is urgent and necessary. This research, focused on potential threat linked to local tsunami sources, is in its early stage in China but it is of capital importance for the local people, local government and offshore economics. Finding Taking landslide S4 for example, the formation, spreading and run-up are predicted. As calculated, the greatest height of tsunami generated by Landslide S4 is 17.5 m, occurring near Dongsha Islands, and the greatest run-up formed on the coastal line is 5.3 m, occurring near Shanwei City; the general height of waves attacking the coastal line is no more than 1.5m, but abnormally high waves might occur in 32 regions. Conclusions Prediction of tsunami generated by Landslide S4 suggests that local landslides in NSCS may trigger tsunami hazards. Therefore, more efforts shall be made to investigate potential damages caused by a submarine landslide, particularly the submarine landslides at Baiyun Depression in NSCS.