Analysis of smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in south Wollo, north east highlands of Ethiopia: An agro-ecological system-based approach

Abstract Background: Climate change and variability has been significantly affecting the Ethiopian agricultural production and thereby smallholder farmers livelihoods. The level of vulnerability varied across agro-ecological zones (AEZs). Identification of difference in the level of vulnerability of a system is important in selecting appropriate and effective adaption options to climate change. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the level of vulnerability of agricultural communities to climate change and variability at micro-scale level in five agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of south Wollo, north east highlands of Ethiopia. Data was collected from a representative of 502 sample households from five AEZs through multi stage random sampling methods. Focus group discussion and key informant interviews were also carried out to supplement and substantiate the quantitative data. The indicator based approach was used to empirically calculate vulnerability. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to give weight for indicators and generate index of vulnerability contributing factors. Results: The results showed that each of the vulnerability contributing factors (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) varied across the AEZs. M3, SM2 and SM3 are the most exposed AEZs but having a relatively better adaptive capacity whereas M1, M2 and M3 are the most sensitive AEZs with relatively low adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. Overall, SM2 is the most vulnerable AEZ which exhibited high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by M1. Conclusions: The study explored sources and levels of vulnerability to each agro-ecology. Since the study is conducted at micro-scale level, it helps decision makers and development partners to have context-specific understanding of the impact of climate change and variability and design appropriate adaptation measures to address the specific situations.