A global volcanic eruption source parameter database with application to determination of ashfall risk to infrastructure

<p>Volcanic eruption sequences are often very long in length, and can cause significant downtimes and damage to infrastructure. Over the course of the H2020 EURATOM NARSIS project (New Approach to Reactor Safety ImprovementS), a review of volcanic sources for Europe was undertaken including historical impacts, source parameters and potential events to impact nuclear facilities either directly or operationally.</p><p>The development of a volcano database of Eruption Source Parameters in order to estimate the tephra dispersal and its risk for the surrounding population and infrastructure is an important component for volcanic risk modelling.</p><p>Each eruption is unique with different Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs), depending on the volcano and its surrounding area. The aim of the project is to create a global volcano database including the ESPs. With the help of this database it is possible to generate a risk map of tephra dispersal for future volcanic eruptions. This map can be used to estimate the potential risk of tephra fall for the surrounding population and infrastructure (development of isopahcs).</p><p>The ESPs includes the plume height, the duration of the eruption, the volume, the mass and the grain-size distribution of the erupted material. Using local wind data it is possible to model an eruption and its range with open-source software packages, like Fall3D. A review of such open-source software packages has been undertaken. To get the ESPs of a volcano, which represent its typical eruptions, the eruption history of the volcano needs to be known. This is done using databases like the Smithsonian GVP, VOGRIPA and LaMEVE, as well as other reports and scientific articles.</p><p>The intended result is a volcano database containing 1547 volcanoes. The ESPs for each volcano will be given in ranges to be able to determine the minimal and maximal effects of an eruption. However, data of previous eruptions will not in all cases be able to be found for every volcano. For these volcanoes, assumptions based on the behaviour of similar volcanoes need to be made. This will then be combined with the socioeconomic impacts of historic eruptions as have been collected as part of the CATDAT Damaging Volcanic Eruptions Database, as well as a reanalysis of historical eruptions for ashfall.</p>