Risk scores in predicting adverse events after an acute coronary syndrome

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a serious event that usually occur in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and is associated with great morbidity and mortality. PARIS ischemic risk score and TIMI score were validated to evaluate ischemic risk in STEMI patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and to estimate mortality, respectively. Despite these specific purposes, the usefulness of these scores in predicting adverse cardiovascular events (ACE) is unknown. Objectives To assess the prognostic value of PARIS and TIMI scores for cardiovascular events, coronary ischemic events and mortality in patients after STEMI. Methods Retrospective single center cohort study enrolled 103 patients with STEMI diagnosis between 2018 and 2019, during a mean follow-up period 30.30 ± 6.46 months and patients were included regardless of the reperfusion strategy. Primary endpoint (PE) was a composite of acute coronary events (ACE), admissions to the emergency department by heart failure (HF) decompensation or chronic coronary syndrome and HF hospitalization. Secondary endpoint (SE) was ACE. Cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death was determined. PARIS ischemic risk score was calculated and patients were stratified into low (0-2), intermediate (3-4) or high (≥ 5) ischemic risk categories. TIMI score was also assessed. Results Out of 103 patients with STEMI diagnosis, the median age was 58.15 ± 12.6 years and 85,4% were male. Fifty-seven patients (55.3%) had hypertension, 45 (43.7%) dyslipidemia, 18 (17.5%) diabetes, 17 (15.5%) were obese and seventy-eight patients (75.7%) had history of smoking. Twenty (19.4%) patients had a previous acute coronary syndrome and 15 underwent PCI. Twenty-five (24.3%) patients were included in low PARIS ischemic risk category, 53 (51.5%) in intermediate risk and 20 (19.4%) in high risk category. PE occurred in 16 patient (15.5%) and SE in 7 patients (6.8%). Eight patients died during the follow-up period (7.8%), 4 of cardiovascular causes (50%), 3 of non-cardiovascular causes (37.5%) and 1 of unknown cause. PARIS ischemic risk score showed prognostic value for PE, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.506-0.806 and p-value 0.039. PARIS score also had predictive value for SE (AUC 0.816, 95% CI 0.604-1.000; p 0.004) as well as TIMI score (AUC 0.738, 95% CI 0.560 – 0.917; p 0.032). Both scores showed a good prognostic value in evaluating all-cause mortality, with a slightly better predictive value for TIMI score (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.802 – 1.00) when compared to PARIS score (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.685 – 0.987). Conclusion This study revealed that PARIS and TIMI scores have a good discriminatory power to predict prognosis in STEMI patients. According to our study results, these scores could be an interesting tool to determine the likelihood of fatal and non-fatal outcomes, including ACS.