Construction and validation of prognostic nomogram model for primary malignant cardiac tumours based on SEER database: A retrospective study

Objective: To build a prognostic nomogram for predicting primary malignant cardiac tumour patients’ overall survival.Method: The retrospective study was conducted in January 2023, and comprised data from January 2020 to December2022 of primary malignant cardiac tumour patients obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database.The data was divided into training cohort A and validation cohort B. A prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survivalwas generated by means of independent prognostic factors. The performance nomogram was validated using the receiveroperating characteristic curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis and risk stratification. Data was analysed using SPSS24.Results: Of the 528 patients, 371(70.3%) were in cohort A; 275(52.1%) males and 253(47.9%) females with 404(76.5%) aged24-76 years. There were 157(29.7%) patients in cohort B; 81(51.6%) males and 76(48.4%) females with 124(79%) aged 24-76 years (p>0.05). Age, American Joint Cancer Staging Committee stage, histology and chemotherapy were independentrisk elements for overall survival, and were used for generating a nomogram (p<0.001). The area under the curve of traditionalstaging systems was surpassed by nomogram in both cohorts (p<0.001). The calibration curves suggested a strongconcordance between predicted and practical survival (p<0.001). Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram hadsatisfactory clinical application value (p<0.001). The risk stratification system provided evidence of the nomogram’s capacityto precisely identify high-risk patients (p<0.001).Conclusion: A useful and reliable prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival in primary malignant cardiac tumourpatients was developed and validated, improving oncologists’ ability to accurately assess patient outcomes.Keywords: Primary malignant cardiac tumours, Overall survival, Nomogram, Prognosis, Surveillance, Epidemiology andEnd Results, SEER.