A Scenario Planning of the Sharing Economy in Bali Accommodation 2030

<p>Defined as the economic system that allows ordinary people to share their underused/underutilized residences as tourist accommodation, the sharing economy in the accommodation sector may emerge into one of the most important trends to change the overall landscape of tourism. Given that the sharing economy is still in its infancy in a world full of contingencies, the future of the sharing economy in accommodation remains uncertain, and Bali, Indonesia provides no exception. In response, this study aims to take a ‘sneak peek into the future’ exploring the potential evolution of the sharing economy in Bali’s accommodation through a comprehensive future study.  Utilizing Delphi-based scenario planning, a group of participating experts have been interviewed and their answers to multiple questionnaires analyzed. Through the two most important drivers to be identified, infrastructure development and ubiquitous Internet, a four-quadrant scenario matrix has been developed. Each of the scenarios is presented in a storyline by integrating the drivers of change, future thinking, and creative imagination to portray four alternative illustrations of the sharing economy in Bali’s accommodation sector in 2030. The "from local to global" scenario emphasizes the vision of Bali’s modernization whereby smart houses and a local sharing economy in accommodation are pervasive, and incumbent hotels decide to compete with such new rivals. The "joint first prize" scenario portrays the partnership between hotels and traditional villages, sophisticated features of the sharing economy in accommodation platforms, and the use of an integrative rating system to classify the shared houses. The "volte-face" scenario highlights a gloomy situation with no existence of a sharing economy in accommodation. Lastly, the "what’s yours is mine" scenario envisages exclusive purpose-built second homes clustered in an area only accessible for high- income bracket visitors. Through an examination of strategic implications, the study explores potential risk and the consequences of each scenario coupled with key strategies to guide the relevant stakeholders with a range of possible approaches for resolution.  This study offers piece of document that contributes to the overall academic literature as this study expands the outcome of available researches focused in this topic, and also overlooks potential policy instruments to be undertaken by key stakeholders.</p>